More Orange County voters for former President in the primary election than for President — but political experts say that doesn’t exactly spell trouble for the incumbent president.
Trump received the most votes in Orange County, 236,456, of the nearly 40 people on the presidential primary ballot, ahead of Biden only by about 18,500 votes.
But other factors contribute to success in a presidential general election — like higher turnout among youth, non-White groups and women. “A different universe of people” will show up in the general election, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of the Political Data Inc. firm.
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“In the general, expect to see a lot more young voters, Latinos, a lot more renters, less affluent voters and increased turnout from Democrats and independents who lean Democratic,” he said.
To rely on the results of the primary alone to predict what will happen in the general election would be a misstep, said Jon Gould, dean of the UCI School of Social Ecology.
For one, Republican candidates in the primary were buoyed by higher voter turnout. In Orange County, was 49%, more than 10% higher than Democratic turnout, which hovered around 36%. Statewide, Republican turnout was around 47%.
“We typically see that in primary elections because the people who are most likely to come out to vote in not very highly contested elections tend to be older, tend to be people who are really, really attached to the candidate, and Trump has, among a core group of supporters, a lot of excitement,” said Gould.
In November, however, more motivated Democratic voters could turn out, he predicted.
“It’s one thing to come out in a primary where it’s Biden versus nobody. It’s another thing to come out when it’s Biden versus the guy they hate with a passion,” Gould said.
But that’s not to say Orange County is necessarily becoming a blue county, said Gould. Data from the March 5 primary shows Orange County is still solidifying its more recent purple reputation.
In the last midterm election, Orange County voters rejected Gov. Gavin ɫ̳om and other Democrats on the state ballot, opting for Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, secretary of state, controller, treasurer, attorney general and insurance commissioner.
This year, , a GOP candidate for the open U.S. Senate seat as well as .
Still, Orange County is very much purple with a blue tinge, numbers-wise. Of the six congressional districts that touch the county, four are represented by Democrats, and of the 16 state Assembly and Senate districts in Orange County, nine have elected Democrats. Registered Democrats in Orange County also outnumber registered Republicans, 37.4% to 33.6%.
That might partly explain why Trump has never come out on top in a general election in Orange County, which went for Hillary Clinton and Biden over Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, after a Democratic presidential drought in the county that dated back to Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.
“I think the way to read the data is that voters here just don’t like Trump,” said Gould. “He’s a flawed messenger for the Republican Party. When there is a more credible Republican candidate or when the Democrat brings out strong feelings against him, Republicans can win here. They did win here.”
By the time California’s primary election rolled around, the stage had already been largely set for a fall rematch between Biden and Trump.
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Twelve Republican candidates were still on California GOP voters ballots when they went out in February, but only former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley remained in the race as the Republican challenger to Trump. and , both once seen as potentially formidable candidates, had suspended their respective campaigns in January.
ahead of Super Tuesday — but Trump still far and away swept among Republican voters in Orange County and across the state.
Haley won only one precinct in Orange County — a small area in La Palma where just 12 total votes were cast.
Other precincts either went for Trump or Biden or resulted in ties.
“It’s entirely possible that this was largely driven by the calendar than anything else,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches politics at USC and has worked as a strategist on past presidential campaigns.
“It’s more than likely that those numbers wouldn’t have been quite so definitive had the primary taken place before the nominations were settled,” Schnur said.
It wasn’t so long ago that so that it could be more competitive.
The legislature decided in 2017 to bump it to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in March, in other words: Super Tuesday, an election day when the greatest number of states hold primary contests.
in June in 2016 and 2012 — and in February in 2008. They were held in March in 2004, 2000 and 1996; in 1992, it was in June.
When the state last moved the primary up to early March, the idea was twofold: increase voter turnout and ensure candidates were spending time campaigning for California voters.
“Candidates will not be able to ignore the largest, most diverse state in the nation as they seek our country’s highest office,” Alex Padilla, now a U.S. senator who was then California’s secretary of state, said at the time.
